Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
According to the latest data by Kaiko, the trading volume of Ripple [XRP] averaged a staggering $462 million in August, dwarfing other altcoins.
🚨Despite its recent pullback,#XRP saw far stronger trading activity relative to other altcoins.
— Kaiko (@KaikoData) September 7, 2023
But the last month also saw the token losing all the gains it made in July following the favorable court judgement.
In July, the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of New York ruled that the sale of XRP tokens on crypto exchanges and through programmatic sales did not constitute investment contracts; hence, it was not a security in this case.
But the court also ruled that the institutional sale of the XRP tokens violated federal securities laws.
XRP immediately surged by 90% to $0.908 after Ripple secured this partial victory in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On 31 July, Ripple issued its Q2 2023 market report, in which it gave an in-depth response to the partial win it had secured against the SEC on 13 July. The report mentions that the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple was misguided and a “quest for political power.”
According to the firm, XRP is not just security in some corners but in all areas. It also accused the SEC of being a propaganda merchant.
However, the split judgement could lead to an ambiguous understanding about the status of XRP and other cryptocurrencies.
In early August, Judge Torres issued a pre-trial scheduling order. The order stated,
“The Court will seek to schedule a jury trial for the second calendar quarter of 2024.”
It would be difficult to predict the price action and trade outcomes of XRP. The situation is complicated as the lawsuit draws closer to different nuances and counter-arguments being issued, triggering markets.
An AI solution can certainly be used to attain some clarity, specifically ChatGPT. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is a generative AI model that has gained massive traction since its initial rollout, with use cases across many industries. Can it be helpful in XRP price analysis and prediction? Well, the answer is surprisingly basic.
XRP’s fundamental analysis using ChatGPT
We asked ChatGPT to give us a fundamental analysis of XRP, and it offered a detailed answer, as shown.
This is the shorter version of the response –
Fundamental analysis is one of the basic ways to determine the intrinsic value of an asset.
We had earlier asked ChatGPT about the performance of XRP in the face of SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs. We had interrogated our AI buddy about its understanding of the potential impact of the lawsuit on investors holding XRP.
ChatGPT had acknowledged difficulty in predicting the accurate outcome and impact of the lawsuit.
“Overall, the outcome of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple is uncertain, and it is difficult to predict exactly how it will affect XRP’s price in the short and long term. Investors should carefully consider the potential risks and uncertainties involved before making any investment decisions.”
Now we know the fundamental analysis and market sentiment, especially from the lawsuit angle. So, how has XRP performed so far in the past? Would ChatGPT be helpful on this front too?
Asking ChatGPT to recall XRP’s history and predict its future
Although historical data doesn’t necessarily affect future price movements, price action is king in technical analysis. And past trends can offer crucial insights. We asked ChatGPT to pull XRP’s historical price action data to accomplish this step.
The AI model gave a year-by-year breakdown of XRP’s price action from 2017 to 2021 –
- In early 2017, XRP was trading at less than $0.01 per token. It then experienced a significant increase in value, reaching an all-time high of around $3.84 in early January 2018.
- After reaching its peak, XRP’s price began to decline and remained relatively stable for several months before experiencing another surge in late 2018, rising to around $0.75 in November of that year.
- In 2019, XRP’s price fluctuated between around $0.25 and $0.50 for much of the year before dropping to around $0.20 by the end of the year.
- In 2020, XRP’s price remained relatively stable in the first half of the year, hovering between around $0.15 and $0.25. However, in December 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a lawsuit against Ripple, claiming that XRP was an unregistered security. This caused XRP’s price to drop sharply, falling to around $0.17 by the end of the year.
- In 2021, XRP’s price fluctuated, reaching a high of around $1.96 in April before dropping again in May and June. However, in November 2021, XRP’s price registered another surge, reaching a high of around $1.40.
The aforementioned output shows XRP’s price action was largely determined by market sentiment and regulatory pressure. In addition, XRP’s highs and lows throughout the previous years could act as key support or resistance levels in the future.
However, ChatGPT has limited access to information from 2021 or below. That makes it difficult to pull data beyond 2021, let alone make future predictions, which OpenAI’s policy firmly prohibits. Ergo, we followed ChatGPT jailbreak techniques to bypass some of these limitations to try to get modest XRP price predictions.
Read Ripple [XRP] Price Prediction 2023-24
Pushing the AI model beyond OpenAI’s limitations doesn’t guarantee output accuracy. The classic version clearly stated it has no access to data beyond September 2021.
However, the jailbreak version tells us that XRP’s highest value in 2022 was $3.84. But XRP didn’t even cross $1 in 2022. In fact, the all-time high (ATH) of XRP was $3.84 that it achieved in January 2018.
Asked about 2023 price predictions for XRP, ChatGPT makes an estimate of $2-$3. After tweaking the prompts, we asked ChatGPT to make predictions based on historical price data and recent judgement.
Though the classic version of ChatGPT did not make any predictions, the jailbroken version provided a modest forecast of $1.50-$2.50 for XRP’s price.
Let’s look at XRP’s on-chart indicators
XRP had a strong first quarter in 2023. The altcoin surged from $0.300 to $0.5298, rising by more than 75% on the charts.
The July judgement has given a boost to its price action, but the token’s value has plummeted since then. At press time, XRP was trading at $0.5412.
Both XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) rested below the neutral 50-mark. Its On Balance Volume (OBV), however, registered an uptick.
As far as we can see, the bears seem to be pulling down the bulls here.
Is your portfolio green? Check out the XRP Profit Calculator
ChatGPT’s shortcomings and strong points
ChatGPT is an invaluable tool, especially on the fundamental and technical analysis front. It can help pull off historical data and XRP’s fundamental analysis within seconds. Moreover, it can bypass some of the AI model’s restrictions to get modest results, including price predictions.
However, ChatGPT is limited to 2021 data, and bypassing its restrictions doesn’t guarantee accurate output. As such, human input is key in making sense of some data from the AI model.
ChatGPT cautions traders of XRP’s prospects and makes modest predictions amidst the overwhelming market uncertainty around regulatory scrutiny worldwide. The AI bot predicts XRP could hit the price range of $1.50-$2.50 by the end of 2023.
ChatGPT could revolutionize cryptocurrency price analysis and trading. Its fundamental analysis of XRP can save beginner traders the time and effort needed to understand the asset.
In the meantime, traders can learn more about ChatGPT to create and test trading strategies to improve trading performance and results. It could offer traders a leg up, especially when dealing with riskier assets like XRP, which is facing increased regulatory pressure.
XRP’s on-chart metrics predict a bearish price movement. ChatGPT is also modest in its forecast of XRP’s prospects.